There have been several criticisms lately of programs
supported by the International Monetary Fund. The programs, say
the critics, do not recognise the specific circumstances of the
Asian crisis countries. They are said to be too contractionary,
to push premature financial sector liberalisation, and to encourage
investor folly by providing an official bailout. I will deal with
the first two points. The third is different in kind and deserves
separate treatment on another occasion.
When the IMF was called in to assist both Thailand
and Korea, their reserves of were dangerously depleted and investor
confidence was crumbling. Once a crisis erupts, easy solutions are
not available, and a growth slowdown is inevitable.
The necessary first step is to rebuild confidence,
which takes time and steady adherence to the economic program, just
as in Mexico. Perhaps even more so as financial sector restructuring,
rather than macro- economic stabilisation, is at the core of the
IMF programs in Thailand, Indonesia and Korea. Not the same old
medicine, but medicine to deal with the ills of each patient.
On the macroeconomics of program design, Fund programs
must estimate a growth rate for output. Usually this projection
is reasonably optimistic, assuming only a moderate slowdown of growth.
In the Korean program, the growth rate assumed for 1998 is 2.5-3
per cent. Considering the deep crisis in which the program began,
this cannot be viewed as a contractionary goal. Rather it is an
effort to prevent an inevitable slowdown from being worse than necessary.
But why ask for fiscal tightening and higher interest
rates at all? The IMF asks for no more fiscal adjustment than necessary
to cover the costs of financial sector restructuring and to help
restore a sustainable balance of payments.
The extent of fiscal tightening differs between programs.
In Thailand, which was running a large (8 per cent of gross domestic
product) current account deficit, the initial fiscal adjustment
was 3 percent of GDP. In Korea, where the current account deficit
was shrinking, the adjustment is 1.5 percent of GDP, largely to
amortise the public sector costs of financial sector restructuring.
The budget allows for the amortisation costs, not the up front capital
costs, of the restructuring, because it is sensible to spread the
budgetary costs over time rather than pay for them through an excessive
immediate fiscal contraction.
Why not use an expansionary fiscal policy to offset
the inevitable growth slowdown? External financing available only
a few months ago has evaporated. Worse than that, a capital inflow
has turned into a massive capital outflow. This is not the time
to try to increase government borrowing. That can be done, and fiscal
policy can turn a bit easier, when market confidence returns - as
it inevitably will.
Turning to interest rates, recent Asian programs started
after lengthy periods when monetary policy had sought to keep interest
rates low, and reserves either poured out or the value of the currency
plummeted, or both. International institutions and foreign governments
then provided loans to the affected countries to help them maintain
and rebuild reserves, and to restore confidence.
These loans were not provided to finance a continuing
capital outflow, driven by low domestic interest rates. People need
to be persuaded to keep their money at home or not to withdraw it.
Interest rates need to be raised, not excessively, not permanently,
but to help restore stability. Of course, higher interest rates
create problems for the banking system, but the banking systems
were in trouble at the start of the Fund-supported programs, not
as a result of them. As stability is restored, interest rates will
come down.
Why not, as some argue, keep interest rates low and
allow the exchange rate to depreciate further, thus relieving the
economy of the strain of higher interest rates? First, exchange
rates have already depreciated too much - by 30-50 per cent in the
affected countries, more than any calculation of initial over-valuation.
Second, devaluation strains companies that have borrowed abroad.
Third, and critical, excessive devaluations would help the crisis
spread worldwide. The IMF was set up in part to prevent a repetition
of that disastrous syndrome and will not ignore the systemic implications
of actions taken under programs it supports.
Turning to financial sector liberalisation, each of
the recent programs in east Asia provide substantial official support
to the country in difficulty. It would be strange, with the country
desperately short of foreign exchange, for the government to take
steps to keep out private foreign capital. South Korea has long
been touted as an example of the virtues of not opening the financial
sector. One of the things to learn from the current crisis is that
protecting the financial sector is in part simple protectionism,
with all its familiar consequences of inefficiency and a failure
to meet world standards.
Korea's decision to allow foreign banks to buy domestic
banks and foreigners to buy 50 per cent of the shares in Korean
companies are surely moves in the right direction. Some express
concern at the elimination of restrictions on foreign borrowing
by Korean companies and at the opening of domestic bond and money
markets. But, in fact, the mistake was to allow domestic banks and
corporations to borrow extensively abroad without prudential controls
on their foreign exchange exposure.
The Korean program will seek to correct this through
mechanisms that will be put in place in conjunction with the programs
of the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank. This is consistent
with past Fund support for market-based controls on short-term capital
inflows - though that is hardly the prime problem at present.
There are many uncertainties about how to deal with
the situation in east Asia. These IMF-supported programs differ
from more traditional programs, particularly in their focus on financial
sector restructuring. The IMF has always learned from its critics.
And it will continue to do so.
Dr. Jim Kahal teaches at the University of Chicago
and also manages an international economics consulting firm. He
may be reached at jkahal@investmentlife.com.